Now that the dust is settling on the UK’s decision to leave the EU, our clients are asking what this means for them. We are the first member state ever to leave the European Union and as such, the result has ignited much uncertainty and debate about what lies ahead.
Change always brings opportunities, as well as challenges, and we are focused on helping our clients understand how these changes can benefit their business during the period of transition ahead.
A recent survey we commissioned suggests that only 20% of businesses had set in place a continuity plan for the leave vote. In the public sector, there is concern about what will happen to staffing arrangements as well as EU-funded collaboration projects. We understand that there is much uncertainty at present, but we will continue to support and provide innovative solutions to help our clients invest and grow.
Of course, it’s not only businesses that are affected. Exit from the EU will likely have a knock-on effect on a range of private and family law matters which are currently governed by a system which in many areas combines both EU and domestic legislation into an integrated European framework.
Whilst it is not clear what the exit will look like or how we will take forward the laws that the UK has adopted over the last 40 years, we do know that there will be opportunities coming out of these changes and we will be supporting our clients in understanding how these can be used to their advantage.
In this article, I explore some of our key sectors and what the implications may be for them of leaving the EU.
Real Estate markets, whether commercial or residential, always prefer certainty. The last few months have led to a slowdown in transactions while people awaited the outcome of the Referendum. In some recent cases, transactions have been entered into with options to determine depending on the result of the vote, and those agreements may now be determined. Now that we know that the Leave vote has won, we expect to see the Real Estate markets to pick up rapidly. Banks are still in the market to lend to the right product, and there is a significant amount of private equity cash available for property transactions. However, there may be some weakness in areas involving prime offices if companies start relocating their HQs.
Since 17 August 2015, we have been coming to terms with new EU legislation for succession (known as Brussels IV). Paradoxically, this system is intended to unify the succession laws which apply to an estate, and now, we have voted to leave just at the point when the member states choose to change things for good!
That said, the UK opted out of the full implementation of the legislation, along with Ireland and Denmark, so the impact strangely has been simplified as there was some uncertainty as to how the legislation applied to the UK. The intention is that EU citizens are able to make an election of the law of the jurisdiction of their nationality to govern the whole of their estate (including foreign property located in another EU state). Post-Brexit the UK is clearly a ‘third state’ under the Regulation, like the USA
This means less flexibility in the choice of succession rules and potentially more tax, although double taxation treaties should continue to apply. Our EU neighbours mainly favour a succession system which includes forced heirship, and we could find ourselves in a position where there is less choice on the ultimate distribution of foreign immovable assets.
Employment law is unlikely to see too many dramatic changes as the UK leaves the EU. Despite the claims that businesses are stifled by EU labour laws, the fact is that many Employment law rights either originated in the UK or have become deeply embedded in UK law as the UK’s attitudes to social issues have evolved. A move to scale back all but the most minor Employment law rights would, in all likelihood, be politically unpopular.
In addition, potential changes could be severely limited by the subsequent trade deal negotiated – other non-EU countries such as Norway and Switzerland have not in practice been able to free themselves of many EU labour laws. In several areas, such as data protection, we are likely to produce laws that mirror EU legislation to ensure we can conduct business effectively.
Such changes as there are could be seen in the areas of collective consultation rights, clarification on Working Time rights such as paid holiday and a repeal of the 48-hour limit, tweaks to the Transfer of Undertakings (Protection of Employment) Regulations 2006, and potentially more significant changes to/removal of the Agency Workers Regulations 2010.
As well as the immediate impact on markets and the business outlook for employers, the referendum result will also throw up longer-term issues, such as the migration of staff in and out of the UK and a potential re-run of the Scottish referendum. Unfortunately, the lack of a clear indication as to what any exit deal would look like makes it very difficult for businesses to plan for it in any practical way at the present time.
Banking and Finance
The financial markets and the banking sector hate uncertainty. The government needs to move quickly to reassure the business community by setting out a clear plan to replace existing trade and other arrangements with the EU and the world as a whole.
Particularly in the short term, the role of the Bank of England will be key. At a time when the monetary tools available to them are already limited, they need to find a way to protect the pound and keep interest rates at a level that enables companies to continue to borrow and invest in what will hopefully be a prosperous economic future for the UK.
The Referendum campaign highlighted a fundamental lack of objective data regarding the impact of EU membership on our healthcare system, and therefore the effects of an exit. However, staffing is likely to be impacted as the NHS, and social care are reliant on overseas migrants to help alleviate intense staffing pressure.
The London location of the EU Medicines Agency has been cited as a positive factor in the NHS’s successful positioning of its R&D capabilities, attracting overseas investment and funding. If the EMA must now relocate, the long-term impact on trials revenue and participation will depend on the strength and depth of relationships already established.
European systems have influenced several of the new models of care programmes in the NHS. Many independent healthcare operators have pan- European activities. Uncertainty in the short term about implications of an exit could impact collaboration and appetite for financial risk in organisations supporting the NHS.
It is impossible to ignore the fact that the higher education sector, which is presently reliant on the EU as a reliable source of funding, in the form of students, research grants, and capital finance, faces a challenging future, given the uncertain nature of the relationship between the UK and the EU. In the next five years, we may well see a more innovative approach to funding and collaboration required, with institutions looking further afield for support, or collaborations with the private sector.
For the moment it is business as usual and trade mark and design owners should not panic – European Union Trade Marks and Registered Community Designs remain valid in the UK, and there is no immediate loss of IP protection.
Once the UK formally gives notice to exit, the EU negotiations will begin on the status of EU marks in the UK and whether any transitional provisions will be required to grandfather across EU trade mark and registered design rights into the UK.
There maybe harmful consequences for major infrastructure projects as much of the funding comes from Europe including Crossrail and HS2. How such projects will be funded in the future will apparently be included in the Brexit negotiations.
It is impossible, though, to predict what the wider impact will be on our economy or the property market at this stage but if migration is reduced, then the pressure on housing should be reduced and the housing needs assessed more accurately.
Most of the laws in information governance are derived from European legislation. The Data Protection Act, the Privacy and Electronic Communications Regulations, the Re-use of Public Sector Information Regulations, the Environmental Information Regulations – all of these are examples of UK laws derived from EU directives. For primary legislation, such as the DPA, leaving the EU will have no immediate effect. For secondary legislation, such as the EIRs, the situation is more complicated. These were made under powers derived from the European Communities Act 1972, which is the statute that governs our membership of the EU.
Leaving the EU will have a knock-on effect on a range of family matters governed by the current system, which pulls together strands of EU and domestic legislation into a single Family law regime. Changes are likely to be felt most keenly by international families.
In terms of jurisdiction in divorce matters, the current rule of “first in time” as to where proceedings will be dealt with will disappear. Parties will therefore potentially be afforded greater flexibility as to where they choose to divorce. However, matters could become increasingly costly if the proposed jurisdiction is contested and, in these circumstances, parties may well find themselves litigating over jurisdiction issues before the main proceedings are dealt with at all.
Enforcement of existing domestic Orders concerning maintenance, child contact, and domestic violence will also be affected. EU legislation currently works with domestic legislation to provide a relatively simple framework for enforcement of such Orders in other EU member states. Brexit means that the system will not operate as such any longer, thereby potentially undermining the current system of mutual co-operation between Courts.
The law governing international child abduction would also see some changes, albeit that these would be less significant. This is because the main international legislation governing this area is found in the 1996 Hague Child Protection Convention and the 1980 Luxembourg Convention, which will remain in force. However, changes incorporated into these Conventions by later EU Regulations will fall away, leaving gaps to be filled at a later stage. The child abduction regime may be weakened in the interim until a comparable system is put back into place through re-negotiation of bilateral agreements with different states to replicate the lost provisions.